China rare earth exports plunged 31% in September 2025, falling to 4,000.3 tonnes, the lowest monthly level since February, according to data from China’s General Administration of Customs. This sharp decline follows the introduction of tightened export controls on rare earth materials, which has reignited trade tensions with the United States.
New Export Controls Impact Shipments
The Chinese government implemented expanded restrictions on rare earth exports in early October. These controls require exporters to obtain government approval for shipments of dual-use items containing trace amounts of certain Chinese-origin rare earths. The restrictions apply not only to goods produced in China but also to foreign-manufactured products containing specific rare earth materials, particularly those used in semiconductors and AI-related devices.
Rare earths, a group of 17 critical minerals essential for manufacturing electric vehicles, military systems, and advanced electronics, are crucial to global supply chains. However, the September data was released in aggregate, leaving unclear which specific rare earth elements or destination countries were most affected. A detailed breakdown is expected to be published on October 20.
Geopolitical and Trade Implications
This export reduction follows previous declines after China introduced similar restrictions in April in response to U.S. tariffs. Although shipments rebounded to record highs in June, they have steadily decreased throughout the third quarter. The latest clampdown prompted U.S. President Donald Trump to threaten additional tariffs of up to 100% on Chinese goods, escalating the fragile trade truce between the two economic powers.
Analysts warn that these developments could disrupt global rare earth supply chains and heighten geopolitical risks. China’s dominant position as the world’s largest producer and exporter of rare earth metals underscores the strategic leverage it holds amid ongoing trade disputes.